Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
